Dharamshala, 29th January: With over 100,000 troops stationed around the country, Russian President Vladimir Putin appears to be preparing for an invasion of Ukraine. The United States certainly believes this, and President Joe Biden has warned Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy that an attack might occur in February.
Russia, which is seeking a guarantee that NATO would not expand to encompass Ukraine, has choices other than a full-fledged invasion, as well as other measures to retaliate against the US and its allies. All of them pose a threat to Russia and the rest of the globe in varying degrees.
China isn’t a direct participant in the Ukraine dispute, but it does have an impact. Observers have cautioned that if Washington rejects Moscow’s security needs, Moscow may strengthen military ties with China. Over the Sea of Japan and the East China Sea, Russia and China have conducted a series of joint war games, involving naval drills and patrols by long-range aircraft.
As President Xi Jinping presided over the opening of the Winter Olympics in Beijing, US officials have stated that they do not believe Russia will launch an invasion. “If the Olympics are disrupted by fighting, the Chinese will be furious,” Gorenburg added. Putin intends to come to Beijing for the opening ceremony, while US and European leaders will abstain in protest of human rights violations.
One assumption among Russia watchers is that China is closely monitoring the US and European responses to Ukraine in order to predict what would happen if it moved against Taiwan.
In a New York Times piece published on Friday, Russian writer Yulia Latynina warned that a stand-down could benefit the world but come at a cost to Putin. She speculated that Putin may have used his force buildup as a bluff, intending to persuade the US and Europe to abandon any plans for tighter ties with Ukraine.
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