Dharamshala, 14th August: Strength brings peace, but it’s a tightrope walk. As a result of China’s gauntlet, India cannot match Chinese advances on the ground and in foreign capitals. During this long-drawn-out crisis, only bravery and intelligence can prevail. Gogra, in eastern Ladakh, is where China and India agreed to retire their soldiers, a step toward returning the situation to what it was in April 2020, when Chinese forces crossed the Line of Actual Control in a series of preplanned incursions (LAC). Gogra, Galwan, and Pangong Tso are the three contested areas where both sides have pulled back, but the standoff continues at other critical locations and is unlikely to be resolved quickly.
Although China and India have disengaged in three key areas, there are lessons to be learned there as well In the first place, persistent diplomacy pays dividends. Because of multiple conversations, the two Asian powers have been able to avoid escalating their conflict after the Galwan incident. Both sides have been able to communicate their desires and preferences by reading maps of each military’s perceptional lines and claims at LAC and by interacting with one another. This was aided by Russia’s subtle intervention as a creative go-between to cool things down.
In spite of the fact that both China and India have long-standing mistrust of each other’s intentions and international affiliations, the LAC crisis diplomacy has focused on tactical details at the friction areas. The message is that the two neighbors will not cease fighting for power and influence in Asia and beyond, but they can manage the disputed border situation to keep it from devolving into a full-blown conflict. As for the second lesson, diplomatic parleys are important, but they are not enough. In the absence of military deterrence and resolution, a belligerent and expansive China cannot be sweet-talked into destroying its bunkers and semi-permanent buildings or pulling back its tanks and armored vehicles to positions prior to April 2020.
As a result of India’s preparedness to use countervailing force, mirror deployment or outnumber the Chinese military at some spots, and undertake counter-offensives across what China claims to be its side of LAC, China withdrew from three encroached areas of LAC. China launched an onslaught in April-May 2020 and India redeemed itself by not backing down and paying China back with its own currency. Because of India’s strategic infrastructure building and military projection in the LAC during this crisis, China has been forced to reevaluate the costs and advantages of its growth. In light of the fact that a diplomatic solution to the situation is contingent on military operations and a display of strategic resolve, India must continue to follow the path of “peace through strength”.
After 2020, when India occupied the crucial heights of the Kailash range of mountains, Narendra Modi’s government must continue to bring bargaining chips to the table and let the Chinese know that India can offset China’s bilateral asymmetry in military and economic might through other cards. A few examples include activating and operationalizing Quad to apply multilateral counterbalancing pressure in the Indo-Pacific, increasing hurdles to Chinese commodities, technology, and investment, and revisiting sensitive issues like Tibet and Taiwan status.
As the India-US strategic relationship matures and China-US ties reach new depths, India-China relations will face a rough road ahead. At LAC, around 50,000 troops on each side remain India’s military proactive may have been crucial in getting China to make minimal concessions, but such an equilibrium is unsustainable and could lead to unjustified escalation. Strength brings peace, but it’s a tightrope walk. As a result of China’s gauntlet, Indicannotto matches Chinese advances on the ground and in foreign capitals. Bravery and knowledge are the only ways to overcome this protracted predicament.