Dharamshala, 29th November: China’s climate action will have a decisive influence on bending the temperature curve to 1.5°C as required by the Paris Agreement. As the world’s second-largest economy, the most populous nation with a population exceeding 1.4 billion, the largest carbon emitter, and one of the fastest-growing global economies. In 2019, China accounted for more than a quarter of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In the 12 months leading up to March 2021, the country’s CO2 emissions reached a new high of roughly 12 GtCO2(Gigatonne(s) of carbon dioxide).
However, China’s updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) lack the ambition that is required in the global fight against climate change. China looks to have failed to put its best foot forward in the face of the greatest challenge the world has ever faced. China has pledged to peaking its carbon emissions before 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality by 2060, among other things. It is unclear how effective these pledges will be in achieving 1.5°C compatibilities. The fact that these commitments are carbon-centric while staying mute on non-carbon GHG emissions is problematic.
However, the main goal here is to call attention to the idea that China is likely exporting its carbon emissions to countries along the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). While BRI projects cause considerable GHG emissions in the host countries for which these countries are held responsible, Chinese constituencies reap a significant amount of the economic benefits associated with these projects.
Because its primary focus has been on creating conventional infrastructure rather than green infrastructure, the BRI is inherently carbon-intensive as an international infrastructure development program. Highways, rail lines, power plants, and ports, to name a few, are all resource and energy-demanding projects that result in GHG emissions.
Despite advocating for renewable energy at home, the energy infrastructure that dominates BRI projects is fossil-fuel based, with non-renewable energy accounting for more than 60% of BRI-related energy finance from the China Development Bank (CDB) and the Export-Import Bank of China (China EXIM). In fact, fossil fuels accounted for 91 percent of energy-sector syndicated loans to BRI countries from six major Chinese banks between 2014 and 2017. Rather than liquidating its coal assets as part of its green transition, China has distributed its aging, polluting, and inefficient coal technologies to BRI countries.
Sunset industries in China, including copper and aluminum smelting, cement, papermaking, iron and steel, and so on, which are being forced to leave the country due to excessive industrial capacity and violations of environmental regulations, find a home in the BRI nations. Another example is China’s high-speed rail systems, which have reached capacity due to their high carbon intensity.
While the carbon-intensive BRI looks to have spent the host countries’ limited carbon budgets, it appears that it has managed to profit from the economic gains that have accompanied these carbon emissions for which the host countries are held liable. Instead of being attributed to China, these carbon emissions are attributed to the host countries’ economic activities. Banks, corporations, and Chinese-origin workers are appropriating interest payments on the BRI loan, profits from executing BRI projects, employment possibilities produced by these initiatives, and the incomes that result from such employment. The quality of jobs provided by BRI projects is far from satisfactory, and the government has squandered a wonderful opportunity to reduce carbon emissions.
The international community must put pressure on China to publish its carbon footprint in BRI projects. Because everyone is affected by climate change, these less-developed BRI countries will be forced to manage the trade-off between global warming and economic growth. China must be required to ensure that the BRI provides genuine development benefits to the host countries while staying within their carbon budgets. China must also follow through on its commitment to make the BRI a “green” effort, something it has so far largely avoided.