According to new research, the risk of flooding across the Himalayas and Tibetan Plateau could triple as global temperatures rise and glaciers melt faster. The expected rise in lake outbursts floods could jeopardize water resources in politically unstable regions like Kashmir and place communities and infrastructure in jeopardy.
Global ice loss rates have increased dramatically in recent decades. Rising temperatures have made Alpine glaciers particularly vulnerable.
Many of these glaciers can be located in the Tibetan Plateau also called the Third Pole of the world. Thousands of glaciers and glacial lakes make up the Third Pole, which acts as a giant water tower, providing water to billions of people across Asia.
Natural and man-made dams also aid in the management of these water supplies, but increased melt rates have caused glacial lakes to swell, placing strain on local levees.
Scientists combined satellite imagery and topographic modeling to better understand how current warming patterns could impact flood threats in the area.
Thousands of glacial lakes were classified as high or very high risk as a result of the study.
Researchers used three different warming scenarios to test their models. In a “business as usual” scenario, most of the Third Pole’s lakes will hit peak danger by the end of the century if warming patterns continue unabated.
Models showed flood risk isn’t only increased by a lake’s expanding volume, but also its encroachment upon steep mountainside banks, where rock slides can trigger a dam breach.
Maps indicate that the number of glacial lakes at a high or very high risk of flooding will increase from 1,203 to 2,963 by 2100 if policy changes fail to slow global warming and temperatures continue to rise.
Flood hotspots are also expected to appear in Western Himalaya, Karakorum, and Central Asia, according to the report.
While some of the at-risk areas have previously experienced flooding, scientists predict that flood patterns will change around the Third Pole, becoming less stable.
According to the researchers, the latest findings indicate that flood risk would increase among hundreds of glacial lakes along disputed national borders.
Political tensions, for example, along the China-Nepal border, could make it more difficult to plan for, anticipate, and react to flooding disasters.
Scientists hope that their findings would spur climate change mitigation efforts and enable the nations of the Third Pole to collaborate to avoid – and plan for – potential glacial flood disasters.
Picture Courtesy: wallup.net
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